DECISION POINT: It’s early in a $3,500 WPT championship event and blinds are 500/1,000 with a 1,000 big blind ante. The table has been somewhat loose and passive except for the player in the Big Blind who is a pro known for their GTO-style play. Under the Gun you make a standard first-in raise to 2,200 with A♠K♠. The players in the Cutoff and Button call and the Small Blind folds. The pro in the Big Blind makes a squeeze play and reraises to 12,200.

Action is back on you, what do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: We are playing a $3,500 championship event at a World Poker Tour stop. It is early in the tournament, and the table is playing somewhat loose and passively but the player in the Big Blind is a renowned professional known for their GTO-style play. The blinds are 500/1,000 with a 1,000 big blind ante.

We are dealt A♠K♠ in the Under the Gun seat and make a standard first-in opening raise to 2,200. It folds around the Cutoff who flat calls. The Button calls, the Small Blind folds, and the Big Blind squeezes to 12,200. While this 3-bet squeeze doesn’t actually put us “all-in” we should operate under the assumption that if we continue, the rest of the chips are very likely to end up in the pot as the Big Blind’s raise represents nearly a third of our remaining stack.

One of the first questions we should ask ourselves in scenarios like this is “Does this player make this move with any hands we dominate?”

Given our read this is a GTO-style player their 3-betting range should definitely include AQ in this spot. If we look at the GTO ranges for the Big Blind in this scenario, they should not only be raising AQ, but also some other hands we dominate that have significant blocker effects such as KQs/KJs/KTs. Their range also includes 99+ and mixes in a few bluffs such as Q9s/ATo with some frequency. This range assessment may not be perfect, as they should be shoving with some of those hands and not just non-all-in 3-bets. If the Big Blind is employing a GTO strategy, they will easily recognize that some semi-bluffs need to be included to go with their value hands. This factor alone means that we should be ahead of their overall range.

Based on the assumption that our AK is 50/50 against the Big Blind, we will often be heads up against just the Big Blind with significant dead money in the pot if we were to move all-in. The Cutoff and Button have both capped their ranges by just calling preflop and are not likely to continue against a 4-bet shove.

This is a spot that can feel incredibly tough in real time, especially facing a sizeable raise from a skilled opponent. However, if we inject logic into the situation it becomes quite clear that we must shove in this spot if our goal is to maximize EV in this tournament.

Moving all-in is the best play.