Poker Quiz! Flopped Set Facing a Turn Lead, What Do You Do?
DECISION POINT: You are playing in a loose $1/$3 cash game with most stacks at the table around $300, except for the Big Blind with close to $500 and your stack at $700. You raise to $15 from UTG+1 with 5♠5♦ and the Button and Big Blind call. The Big Blind checks the 5♣7♦2♠ flop, you continuation bet $25 and both opponents call. On the 6♥ turn the Big Blind leads for $100 and action is on you. What do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: We are playing a loose, live $1/$3 cash game. We have $700 but most of the stacks at the table have around $300 and the Big Blind has closer to $500. We are in the UTG+1 seat with 5♠5♦ and action folds to us.
In many games pocket fives are a fold preflop in early position. However, in looser games where players routinely stack off with top pair type hands and there is also very little 3-betting, the smaller pocket pairs can be quite profitable as you often stand to win a big pot when you flop a set. We elect to make the standard open for this game of $15 and are called by both the Button and the Big Blind.
The flop is 5♣7♦2♠and we do indeed flop a set. The Big Blind checks and this is a great spot to make a continuation bet. The goal is to start building the pot now as it’s our best chance to get all the chips in by the river. In looser games we can expect to regularly get called by hands as weak as ace high or two over cards as long as the c-bet is not too large. Sizing approximately 40% of pot is ideal, but in the moment we bet a little over half pot for $25 and both players call.
The turn is the 6♥ completing the rainbow of all 4 suits and surprisingly the Big Blind leads for $100.
It can be easy to see monsters under the bed here and just assume they have to turned a straight with 98s or 43s. In this spot it’s critical to go through our process and consider why the Big Blind would lead if they did in fact make a straight on the turn.
The Big Blind can logically expect us to bet again on the turn in most circumstances, and this would be a perfect spot to check raise with a big made hand. Instead, these lead bets more often represent a range that has turned additional equity but often benefits from protection. Hands such as 76s, 87s, or even 88 make a lot of sense here. We may also potentially see an A7s that doesn’t want action to check through and see 4 to a straight or an overcard hit on the river.
Given the action in the hand to this point, our set of fives is still likely to be ahead and this is an ideal spot to raise. With $221 already in the middle and $300 effective behind, getting the rest of the chips in now makes a lot of sense.
We’re likely to have the best hand very often when all the money goes in on the turn, and on the rare occasions when the Big Blind is ahead we’ll still fill up or hit quads around 20% of the time on the river.
Raising all-in is the best play.
How would you play it?
Share your answer in the comments below!
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