Poker Quiz! In Late Position With 7♥7♣ Vs the Big Blind...
DECISION POINT: You are in the early stages of a daily tournament and you don’t have any significant reads on your tablemates, with the exception that most have been showing down reasonable hands. The blinds are 200/400 with a 400 big blind ante and you have 20,000 chips to start the hand. The action folds to you in the Cutoff with 7♥7♣, you open to 1,000, and only the Big Blind calls. Your opponent checks the K♣5♥2♦ flop, you c-bet 900, and they call. On the 3♣ turn, the Big Blind leads out for 1,500. Action is on you — what do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: We are in the earlier stages of a daily tournament with blinds of 200/400 and a 400 big blind ante. Most of the players have been showing down reasonable hands when we’ve had the opportunity to see them, and we haven’t developed any significant reads to this point in the session.
With 20,000 chips to start the hand in the Cutoff and 7♥7♣ we make a standard raise to 1,000 chips, and everyone folds to the Big Blind who just calls. The flop is K♣5♥2♦ and the Big Blind checks to us. This is a board where the preflop raiser from the Cutoff will have a significant range advantage and we will frequently continuation bet with our entire range. In game we make the preferred choice and bet 900 into the 2,600 pot, and the Big Blind just calls.
The turn is the 3♣ and surprisingly, our opponent leads for 1,500. When an opponent takes a line where they lead into the aggressor on the turn, there are often one of several factors at play.
First, the Big Blind will often lead the turn when picking up additional equity, which in this case would mostly be flush draws but does include some Ax, 6x, and 4x hands.
Continued below...
Second, they could have turned two-pair or better with hands including A4, K3, 33, 53, and 32s, and are trying to build a pot fearing we may not fire again on this board texture. Lastly, this turn lead may be intended to to deny equity since we are betting such a wide range on the flop. Many of the 5x combos in the Big Blind’s range benefit greatly from generating folds from some of our random overcards such QJo that still have significant equity.
Given these assumptions, the Big Blind’s leading range likely consists of some draws, some bigger hands, and some medium-strength hands looking to clear out equity. Our pocket sevens are doing fairly well against that range. However, there is little reason to raise as our opponent is likely to fold medium-strength hands we dominate, continue with the hands that dominate us, and proceed with draws only if getting the correct price.
Calling is the best play.
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Poker Quiz! At the WSOP With A♠T♠ vs a Pro, What Do You Do?
DECISION POINT: You are in the early stages of a multi-day tournament at the World Series of Poker with late registration and reentry still available. Most players have around 50 big blinds but you’ve worked your stack up to 100BBs. The action folds around to you in the Cutoff with A♠T♠ and you make a standard raise to 1,000. The Button, who is an accomplished Pro and has a 105BB stack, calls and the Blinds fold. The flop comes Q♣5♠4♥ and action is on you.
What do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: We are playing a multi-day event at the World Series of Poker. The tournament is in the early stages with late registration still open and players are allowed to reenter. Most players have around 50 big blinds but we’ve managed to work our stack up to 100BBs. The Button is a very studied Pro. The blinds are 200/400 with a 400 big blind ante and we are dealt A♠T♠ in the Cutoff. The action folds to us and we make a standard raise to 1,000. The Button decides to call and both Blinds fold. The flop is Q♣5♠4♥ and we are first to act.
The primary driver of continuation betting frequency on the flop is range advantage. Many players make the mistake of assuming that just because we are the preflop raiser, we have a range advantage on dry boards such as this one. Position is a key factor to consider in c-betting spots, and had we raised in Early Position instead of the Cutoff we certainly would have a range advantage on this board. However, in this specific situation we have a wide uncapped range and our opponent has a significantly narrower range that is capped and condensed.
Reviewing this spot in a solver after the hand we see that the Button actually defends with less than half as many hand combinations as we raise with from the Cutoff (215 vs 450) and has a slight range advantage (51% vs 49%) on the flop before any action takes place.
Continued Below...
This happens most frequently in Cutoff opens vs Button call and Small Blind vs Big Blind scenarios. When facing skilled and aggressive players in these situations who are capable of utilizing their position appropriately, we should check the flop quite frequently. In fact, based on the solver results the Cutoff checks with the entire range around 85% of the time. It’s very important to note that checking here doesn’t mean giving up. We should be checking some of our big hands to protect our checking range and add some check-raising with some strong value hands and bluffs such A2s/A3s on this particular board. Check-calling on the flop also makes up a portion of our strategy, particularly against smaller bet sizes.
If our opponent on the Button was a more passive recreational player in this spot the strategy would change significantly. There would be more merit to betting because a passive opponent would likely be calling preflop with a much wider range, negating the range advantage a more narrow and condensed range has on this board, and they would be far less likely to float and raise the flop with the appropriate tendencies to discourage us from continuation betting.
Against tougher players it’s very important to recognize these spots as high frequency checks or we will quickly bleed chips to good players who utilize position well.
Checking is the best play.
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Poker Quiz! In Early Position With J♥J♦, What Do You Do?
DECISION POINT: You are in the middle stages of a daily tournament with over 50% of the field still remaining and 500/1,000 blinds with a 1,000 big blind ante. Most players at your table have 20-40BBs and you are relatively new to the table with no significant reads on your opponents. From Under the Gun you make the standard 2.2x open raise to 2,200 with J♥J♦. Players in Middle Position, Hijack, and Button all call. The flop comes 9♥8♦8♠ and action is on you.
What do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: We are playing in a daily tournament at a local casino. It is the middle stages of the tournament with just over 50% of the field remaining. Most of the players at our table have 20-40 big blinds and we are relatively new to this table with no significant reads. The blinds are 500/1,000 with a 1,000 big blind ante.
We are dealt J♥J♦ UTG and make a standard open to 2,200 chips. The player to our immediate left calls, as do the Hijack and the Button. Everyone folds and we go four ways to the flop.
The flop is 9♥8♦8♠. Playing multiway pots out of position can be extremely tricky. With a SPR (stack to pot ratio) of around 2 and holding an overpair, it’s going to be very difficult to get away from our hand without some sort of significant action from multiple players still left to act behind us. When deciding if we should c-bet or check, it is important to think of what our entire range wants to do in this spot.
Continued below...
The default range from UTG consists mostly of bigger overcards and overpairs, and while we do have some 77/A9s/A8s type hands as well, the overcards and overpairs will make up the majority of hands. Our opponents are much more likely to have condensed ranges that connect with this board in some way. For that reason, most of our range prefers to check in this spot.
Many players mistake checking for weakness or giving up here, and that’s simply not true. Depending on how the action unfolds behind us there are several options to continue including check-raise, check-call, or check-fold if multiple opponents go all-in before it’s back around to us. By checking, we allow our opponents to take stabs at the pot with hands they otherwise might fold to a bet, such as 66/55 or even some ace-high hands.
Our hand does benefit from protection, so if we were to lead at all in this spot, hands like JJ/TT/A9s would make the most sense. We become very easy to play against if we bet all of our made hands and check all of our misses, and our range is made up of far more overcards and misses than big hands and overpairs.
Checking is the best play.
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Poker Quiz! 8♥8♣ In a Daily Tournament, What Do You Do?
DECISION POINT: In a live daily tournament with blinds at 1,000/2,000 and a 2,000 big blind ante you are the effective stack at the table with 36K (18BBs). You’ve observed the field as being very passive with many players limping. The action starts with a limp from UTG followed by calls from MP2 and the Cutoff. The Button folds and the Small Blind completes. Action is on you in the Big Blind with 8♥8♣.
What do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: We are playing a daily live tournament with a very passive field with lots of limping. The blinds are 1,000/2,000 with a 2,000 big blind ante. Most of the stacks are around 100K and we are the shortest with 36K to start the hand.
We are dealt 8♥8♣ in the Big Blind. The action starts with a limp from UTG followed by calls from MP2 and the Cutoff. The Button folds, the Small Blind completes and action is on us with a middle pocket pair and 10K in the pot before we act. There is no real “GTO” solution for this spot because our opponents aren’t supposed to have limping ranges from early position, so we have to fall back on range analysis and what we know about each opponent to make the best decision.
Any time we can potentially add 20-25% to our stack uncontested by moving all-in, we should at least consider shoving all-in as a potential option. In this particular situation, we also have a very solid hand that is likely favored over our opponents’ ranges and has reasonable equity even when called. It is very unlikely that anyone is calling preflop with a very strong range aside from potentially UTG, so the most important range to consider is that of the UTG limper.
In many live games we will see players limping in from all positions and a wide range using hands they “want to see a flop with”. This limping range typically includes Ax combinations, hands with two broadway cards, pocket pairs, and suited connectors.
Continued below...
Against this range we would be way ahead and our hand would easily warrant moving all-in. There some opponents who may be a little more sophisticated and will limp with big hands to trap, particularly at tables where there is a lot of preflop raising occurring. If we had specific information on the UTG player’s potential to limp with strong hands as well this decision becomes much easier.
The last step is to consider the overall table dynamics. Is this a table where we are able to pick up chips easily through winning uncontested pots? Since we are currently the shortest stack at the table the answer is likely no, however if we are likely to take down uncontested pots with a decent frequency in future orbits checking becomes the preferred option.
Most players aren’t capable of limping with a truly balanced range, and there are only a few combinations of big hands available to begin with. Consequently, players who employ a limping strategy in early position can easily start including too many hands in their limping ranges. Without a specific read that the UTG player limps infrequently and does so with strong hands, the ability to add over 25% to our stack by winning an uncontested pot when we move all-in is far too enticing to worry about the few times they are trapping with a big hand.
Moving all-in is the best play.
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Poker Quiz! Early in a Daily Online Tournament With A♦A♠
DECISION POINT: You are in the early stages of a daily online tournament with blinds at 10/20 and no ante. Play has been very active and loose with most stacks at the table near the 2,500 starting stack. The UTG player limps, UTG+1 raises to 90, and action folds around to you on the Button with A♦A♠. You reraise to 320, the Big Blind calls, and both Early Position players call. On the Q♠J♣T♦ flop it checks around to the UTG+1 player who goes all-in for 2,205.
Action is on you, what do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: We are playing in the early stages of a daily online tournament. The play has been pretty active and loose so far and most players are still near their 2,500 starting stack. The blinds are 10/20 with no ante. Theoretically, with no ante everyone should be playing tighter ranges, however we’ve observed several opponents playing ranges wider than they should given the situation.
We are dealt A♦A♠ on the Button. The UTG player limps for 20, UTG+1 makes it 90 chips, and everyone else folds to us. Our hand definitely prefers to raise and not allow multiple players to see the flop cheaply. A standard reraise is usually 3x the initial raise plus an additional amount to account for previous callers. In this case that would be a total raise of around 290 chips. Given that this table has been playing pretty loose we opt to make it a little larger and raise to 320. Even with the increased raise size we still get calls from the Big Blind, UTG, and UTG+1.
On the Q♠J♣T♦ flop both the Big Blind and UTG check and UTG+1 moves all-in for a huge overbet of 2,205 chips. The first step to deciding how to respond to this shove is to put our opponent on a hand range. Considering the preflop action and the fact that we hold two cards that are ace blockers, it’s very unlikely anyone has AK.
Additionally if the UTG+1 player had AK they would likely want to check and try to induce a bet rather than just move all-in. This makes UTG+1’s range much more likely to include several pair + flush draw hands as well as some two-pair hands. It’s possible they might play some pairs including TT-QQ this way as well, although those hands are strong enough we would expect them to check the flop at least some portion of the time. Taking these factors into account, if our opponent has a hand range of KTs+, QTs+, JTs, QQ-TT we are still over 43% against that range.
Continued below...
Our hand has a lot of equity and will be the best hand on the flop a fair portion of the time. The times we don’t have the best hand on the flop we still have a lot of equity versus even the hands that are currently ahead. We have solid outs including four kings that can make the nuts plus several other cards that improve our hand against two-pair and we can still make a set of aces. If we believe UTG+1 would ever overbet with a draw such as A9s/T9s or would potentially shove the flop with a pair and big draw such as KK, our equity goes up to nearly 47%.
Since this is early in the tournament and there is very little ICM pressure we should make decisions that are very close to Chip Expected Value. While we do have to factor in the slight chance that UTG or the Big Blind could be slowplaying a big hand, there shouldn’t be many big hands aside from 98s in their ranges considering the preflop action. We have to call 2,205 to win 3,495 meaning we only need 40% equity to continue.
If the table was super soft or we had some specific read that the UTG+1 player would just never make this huge overshove on the flop without 2-pair or better, we could fold. Since the table has been observed to be playing very loose and splashy, we simply have too much equity to fold pocket aces with so much money already in the pot.
We can expect to have the best hand reasonably often, and even when behind on the flop we have plenty of outs to improve.
Calling is the best play.
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Poker Quiz! J♠J♣ Facing a Squeeze Play, What Do You Do?
DECISION POINT: You are playing Day 2 of the WPT World Championship and blinds are 3,000/6,000 with a 6,000 big blind ante. It's early in the day and there is still approximately 50% of the field remaining. The average stack at your table is around 40BBs except for the Button who has 100BBs. You raise to 12,000 from UTG with J♠J♣. A Middle Position player calls, the Cutoff calls, the Button reraises to 60,000, and action is back on you.
What do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: We are playing early on Day 2 of the WPT World Championship event. We still have around 50% of the field remaining and the blinds are 3,000/6,000 with a 6,000 big blind ante. We have just under 40 big blinds, as does most of the table except the Button who has 100 big blinds. We are dealt pocket jacks Under the Gun and make a standard open for this level to 12,000 chips (2BBs). Two players in Middle Position call the open and action folds to the Button who reraises to 60,000. Everyone else folds and the action is on us.
Much of our decision in this spot comes down to our assessment of the Button and whether they are capable of making a move with a wider range. If we assume that they are a skilled and studied opponent then they definitely should be showing up with some A5s/KTs type of squeeze semi-bluffs in this situation in addition to stronger hands. Based on that assumed range this is a slam dunk shove with pocket jacks. Taking a closer look at this hand using a solver, the result shows it’s a pretty clear +EV move to shove here against a GTO opponent.
During situations at the table like this in real-time it’s useful to ask “Does our opponent ever have a hand here that we dominate?”, such as TT or AJ in this instance.
Continued below...
If the answer is yes, we have a very compelling reason to continue with all the likely dead money in the pot since the middle position stacks are unlikely to have hands they can continue with here. If the answer is no and we believe the Button is raising a tighter range to include only premium pairs such as AA-JJ plus AK and AQ, then we could consider exploitatively folding.
In the $10K buy-in WPT World Championship event, most of our opponents are likely to be more than capable of including some semi-bluffs in their 3-bet squeezing range here, making our hand a fairly trivial all-in. Using the framework of asking ourselves the question “Does my opponent ever have hands I dominate?” will help us exploitatively adjust in the event that we do run into an opponent who has an extremely narrow range in this situation.
Moving all-in is the best play.
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Poker Quiz! In Middle Position With J♠T♠, What Do You Do?
DECISION POINT: You are dealt J♠T♠ in the middle stages of a large field tournament with blinds at 400/800 and a 800 big blind ante. Action folds to you in the MP2 seat and you raise to 2,000, the Small Blind and Big Blind call. Your opponents check the A♣Q♣5♦ flop, you c-bet 3,000, and only the Small Blind calls. On the 5♣ turn your opponent checks and action is on you.
What do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: We are in the middle stages of a large field poker tournament. The blinds are 400/800 with an 800 big blind ante. The two players who are first to act fold and we are dealt JsTs in MP2.
Our standard opening hand range in Middle Position includes all suited broadway combos so our suited JT is good for a raise here first-in. At this stage in the tournament with the big blind ante in play and most stacks are below 50 big blinds, we can start to decrease the standard opening raise size. In later stages sizing as small a minimum raise can be acceptable, however in this case we raise to 2.5BBs or 2,000 chips. Action folds to the Blinds who both call.
The Big Blind is getting an excellent price to call, so it is reasonable to assume a wide calling range. In the case of the Small Blind, this calling range should be much more narrow. They should be reraising with strong hands and mostly calling with a narrow hand range that includes several medium strength combos including 88-JJ and AJ/AT as well as suited broadway hands, but none of the bigger hands like AQ+/QQ+. A calling range with these characteristics is often referred to as a condensed range.
The flop is AcQc5d and the Blinds check. We did flop some equity with an inside straight draw here, but most importantly we have a huge range advantage. Our opponents should very rarely show up with premium hands like AA/QQ/AQ here, and they can have the occasional 55/A5s. With all the strong combinations in our range this is a great spot for a continuation bet. There are multiple players in the pot and a flop that favors our range. Large c-bet sizing is not required, as our opponents will likely act based on absolute hand strength in this situation and are unlikely to continue with a wide range of hands from out of position. We elect to continuation bet 3,000 into the 6,800 pot and only the Small Blind calls.
Continued Below ...
The Small Blind’s calling range can still contain 55 but also AJo/ATo, plus some smaller suited aces such as A9s/A8s at a lower frequency. Flush draws and several Qx combos as well as KJs/KTs/JTs are also part of this range, although we block some of the KJs/JTs combos. The turn is the 5c and the Small Blind checks.
It would be easy for us to give up in this spot. The Small Blind’s range does contain some flushes, however if we really dig deep into this range it also contains some Ax and Qx combos with weak kickers that are now counterfeited. In addition, since most of their Qx combos are likely to include spades and the Qc is on the board, the remaining possible combos of Qx hands in the Small Blind’s range are less likely to contain a club.
Recognizing this condensed range is very important as the 5c is a good card for us to bluff against all their non-flush hands. Most of the Ax combos in the Small Blind's range are just hoping to chop at this point and the Qx combos are now reduced to bluff catchers. Some of the AJ/AT combos in the SB's range contain the Jc/Tc with some frequency (not in this specific case given our hand) and the ones that don’t will have a harder time calling. While our opponent does sometimes have a flush here and we feel foolish when they jam on us with their big hands, our range has AA/QQ/AQ and flush combos as well. This means this particular card will be just as scary for the Small Blind, if not more so, than it is for our range on the turn.
This is a great spot to fire a second bullet as a bluff. A bet size of half pot puts plenty of pressure on our opponent and creates additional leverage through the threat of an appropriately sized all-in river shove.
Betting half pot (6,400) is the best play.
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Q♠Q♥ In a Milestone Satellite to the WPT World Championship...
DECISION POINT: You are playing a Milestone Satellite to the WPT® World Championship at Wynn Las Vegas with blinds at 50/100 and a 100 big blind ante. You are in the Small Blind with Q♠Q♥ and 4,600 chips (46BBs). An Early Position player limps, a visibly frustrated player in the MP2 seat makes it 300, the Button flat calls, and action is on you.
What do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: We are in the second level of a Milestone Satellite into the WPT World Championship at Wynn Las Vegas. The blinds are 50/100 with a 100 big blind ante and we have 4,600 chips in the Small Blind with Q♠Q♥. MP2 has been active and recently frustrated by some tough spots, even tossing his cards aggressively toward the dealer in one instance. The UTG player limps and everyone folds to MP2 who makes it 300. The Hijack and Cutoff fold, the Button flat calls, and action is on us.
Queens are well ahead of MP2’s and Button’s ranges which makes folding out of the question. Calling is likely profitable but we’d be most likely to take a flop 4-ways, which can be quite problematic for a hand that is likely to make one-pair in a multiway pot. So in this instance if we are favoring a raise, what is the best size to use in this spot given our positional disadvantage?
Continued below...
The standard raise in this situation is 3x the initial raise plus any call amounts. In this scenario that works out to 900 + 300 + 100 or 1300 chips. Given our positional disadvantage, using a slightly larger raise size in the 1400-1500 chip range would be standard. The issue with adjusting to larger sizing to accommodate for the positional disadvantage is that we have committed one third of our stack.
That could remove any illusion of fold equity our opponents have and inadvertently force them to play better versus our hand by not bluffing against us. If we bet a little smaller, for example a sizing of around 1150, we create the illusion of fold equity if MP2 or the other 2 opponents want to shove. The smaller sizing also creates a really good price for a squeeze with some of our bluffs here to ensure balanced range with other hands in this same spot.
If the table was quite soft there is also merit to just moving all-in preflop. This would not be the default play, but if you’re at a soft table where chips are coming easy, moving all-in can sometimes induce some light calls from smaller pairs hoping to be racing against AK. The shoving line, while also a little lower variance, is at the expense of some EV as opponent calling ranges vs the large shove size will be more narrow.
Reraising small to 1,150 is the best play.
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Poker Quiz! Preflop With A♦K♦ Facing a 4-Bet, What Do You Do?
DECISION POINT: You are in the early stages of the $1,100 WPT Prime Championship Tournament with blinds at 300/500 and a 500 big blind ante. Most stacks are between 50-100BBs and you have 95BBs. First to act, you raise to 1,300 with A♦K♦. Action folds to the Hijack who makes it 3,800, the Big Blind cold 4-bets to 8,500, and action is back on you.
What do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: We are playing the early stages of the WPT Prime Championship at Wynn Las Vegas. The blinds are 300/500 with a 500 big blind ante. Most of the table has between 50-100 big blinds. We are dealt A♦K♦ Under the Gun (UTG) with 47,500 chips in our stack. AK suited is firmly in our first-in opening range from early position, so we raise to 1,300 chips. Action folds to the Hijack who makes it 3,800. Everyone else folds to the Big Blind who cold 4-bets to 8,500.
Since we raised UTG and were reraised by the Hijack, the player in the Big Blind should already be putting us both on very narrow ranges. This means that the Big Blind’s cold 4-betting ranges should be quite polarized, with most bluff combinations that have card removal effects to the opponent's biggest hands. A good example of a hand that fits this category is A5s.
If we analyze this spot in a solver and assume the Hijack and Big Blind are using appropriately balanced ranges, we see that the recommended play with AKs is to shove all-in. In fact, the most surprising thing that we see in the solver output is that almost our entire range is reduced to shove or fold against this 4-bet from the Big Blind. The combinations that are recommended to raise small and call an all-in make up a tiny percentage of the strategy.
Continued Below ...
This spot is still incredibly close given the strength of our hand preflop. Shoving AKs has a slightly positive expectation, however the offsuit versions of AK are neutral with the solver recommending a fold over half the time. Based on this output we can make a few general assumptions.
We should not be flat calling this raise, or raising a size that is not all-in. Additionally, our hand will quickly become unprofitable if the Big Blind is not 4-betting an appropriate range that is balanced and includes ATs/A5s with some frequency, JJ about half the time, and AQs almost always.
So without any knowledge of how our opponents play, we should move all-in here and assume they are playing reasonable ranges. If the Big Blind is 4-betting a narrower range than optimal, or if we feel our edge over the table is significant enough that passing on a spot that might be slightly +EV to make sure we are around for future opportunities where we can exert our skill edge, then folding would be best.
Moving all-in is the best play, unless we have player specific reads or a significant table edge, in which case folding is best.
How would you play it?
Share your answer in the comments below!
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Poker Quiz! In the Small Blind With Q♥Q♦, What Do You Do?
DECISION POINT: You are currently eight-handed in the middle stages of a major weekend online tournament with blinds at 500/1,000 and a 1,000 big blind ante. Most of the stacks at the table have around 50BBs and 75% of the field is still in play. The UTG player raises to 2,000 and it folds to you in the Small Blind with Q♥Q♦. You reraise to 9,000, the Big Blind folds, and the original raiser calls. The flop comes 6♦4♣3♠ and action is on you.
What do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: We are in the early to middle stages of a major weekend online tournament. Most of the stacks at the table, including us, have around 50 big blinds. Around 75% of the field is still playing. The blinds are 500/1,000 with a 1,000 big blind ante. We are dealt QhQd in the Small Blind with eight players at the table. The UTG player opens to 2,000 and the action folds around to us.
While this raise came from an opponent seated Under the Gun, this opening range should still be as wide as 18-20% of overall hands when using a small opening raise size and with a big blind ante in play. Our specific hand pocket queens is well ahead of that range. Due to being out of position we are heavily incentivized to push our equity edge preflop by reraising rather than taking a passive line and playing out of position postflop with relatively deep stacks. We choose to reraise to 9,000 chips, the Big Blind folds, and the original UTG raiser calls.
The flop is 6d4c3s and with a stack to pot ratio (SPR) of around 2, our pocket queens are very strong and we are near the top of our range, so folding should not be a consideration at any point in the hand. Given that is the case our main concern here is finding the best way to get money into the pot against their range. When the UTG player just calls our preflop raise, their range is usually condensed to pairs as well as some suited aces and suited broadway hands. Although AK might just call sometimes preflop, many players would just move all-in preflop with that hand so we can discount it from our range assessment. This means that when we’re ahead our opponent is likely drawing to somewhere between 2-3 outs, the exception being the times they specifically have combinations of A5s and 55.
The big temptation that many players have here is that they want to bet big and just get the hand over with.
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If we really think about UTG’s range our hand isn’t that vulnerable when we’re ahead on this flop. You’re not likely to make big hands at a high frequency in any given tournament, so it’s vital that we’re able to maximize our value when spots like this do occur. If we bet big here our opponent may continue with some of their overpairs, however most of their defending range will be composed of hands that are drawing super thin on this flop such as JTs/ATs.
Consulting the output from a GTO solver for this spot, we see that the preferred line actually checks with our hand at a high frequency here to induce a stab from the portion of UTG’s range that just contains overcards. In addition to checking the solver recommends sometimes betting with a mix of sizing between 25-50% pot. Using a sizing any larger than half pot will likely force our opponent to play closer to “perfect”, by folding all their hands that have little equity against us and only continuing with their strongest holdings.
In real-world games our decision in this spot will be influenced by any tendencies we’ve observed from our opponents.
If we have observed that the UTG player might aggressively take a stab at the pot if we check, this is a great place to play our hand a bit deceptive and check the flop. Against more passive opponents it’s crucial to start betting now and to choose a small sizing that will allow UTG to continue with hands we are dominating.
Both checking and betting small are the best plays.
How would you play it?
Share your answer in the comments below!
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